Thomas Fink | March 10, 2025
Photo Credit: Pixabay
The 97th Annual Academy Awards honored the best in film of 2024 on Sunday night, March 2 at 7:00 p.m. This 2025 Oscars ceremony was held at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood, California, and was televised on ABC and live-streamed on Hulu.
For this opinion piece, I’ll be recapping the winners where I discuss my correct and incorrect predictions; they consisted of a “primary prediction” (i.e. what I thought would ultimately win) and an “upset prediction” (i.e. “if that won’t win, then this one will”).
The biggest prize of the Oscars is the Best Picture Award; I’ll begin with that then work through the lesser categories.
For me, the most notable surprise was “Anora,” demonstrating to be a relentless upset, sweeping the majority of the top awards. The Best Picture award did indeed go to “Anora,” which I incorrectly predicted that “Conclave” would score the highest, final award of the night. However, my upset-prediction was correct in that it would either go to “The Brutalist” or “Anora.”
At previous awards ceremonies this season, “Anora” had not been successful garnering the “best film” prize, but it did strike gold for Best Picture at the Critics’ Choice Awards which caused me to put it on my radar. At the world’s most prestigious film festival, Cannes, “Anora” garnered the event’s highest prize, the Palme d’Or, but it’s extremely rare that the winning film at Cannes scores the Best Picture Oscar. It’s now the fourth film to do so after “The Lost Weekend” (1945), “Marty” (1955), and “Parasite” (2019).
The Best Director Oscar also went to Sean Baker (“Anora”). Having never won any previous directing awards for “Anora,” he never was in my purview–not even as an upset; that would have been Coralie Fargeat (“The Substance”). I incorrectly predicted that Brady Corbet (“The Brutalist”) would win given that he won Best Director at the Golden Globes and BAFTA awards.
For Best Actress, I was calling for Demi Moore in “The Substance,” but my upset proved to be correct: Mikey Madison in “Anora.” Moore appeared to be the frontrunner, having won the Golden Globe, the SAG, and the Critics’ Choice Award, but when Madison surprisingly won the BAFTA, there’s no denying that the latter would be the upset and the Academy proved that to be the case.
The Best Film Editing Oscar also went to “Anora” which I was dead wrong on, because that film had won no previous editing prizes. The BAFTA win for “Conclave” led me to call it for that one. Because the winners of Best Film Editing, Best Screenplay (adapted or original, regardless) and Best Picture often go hand-in-hand, it became obvious upon those wins that “Anora” was set to win the big award.
Moving onto prizes that “Anora” didn’t swipe, I accurately predicted that Adrien Brody would strike Oscar gold for “The Brutalist” as he won Best Actor—a second time after “The Pianist” (2002). He has now won almost every major leading-actor award this year: the Golden Globe, the Critics’ Choice Award, the BAFTA, and now, the Oscar. The notable exception was the SAG award which went to my predicted upset: Timothee Chalamet in “A Complete Unknown.”
The next three categories I called correctly: Zoe Saldana winning Best Supporting Actress for “Emilia Perez;” Kieran Culkin winning Best Supporting Actor for “A Real Pain;” and “Conclave” winning Best Adapted Screenplay (Peter Straughan). These three were guaranteed to score due to their winning streaks at the Golden Globes, the BAFTAs, and the Critics’ Choice Awards.
For Best Original Screenplay, I incorrectly predicted (and was enthusiastically rooting for) “The Substance” to be honored for its gonzo script (Coralie Fargeat), but the unexpected win for Anora that occurred within the first third of the show demonstrated that it has the potential to be a Best-Picture-dark-horse. “The Substance” had won in this category at Cannes and at the Critics’ Choice Awards; my upset, “A Real Pain” (Jesse Eisenberg) earned this prize (BAFTA).
Moving on to Best Animated Feature Film, I was wrong in expecting DreamWorks Animation’s “The Wild Robot” to win as it went to “Flow.” Although “Flow” did win the Golden Globe, it was in no way the frontrunner; “Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl” won the BAFTA and “The Wild Robot” won the Critics’ Choice Award. Because the Academy tends to go with the toon that is the most popular with American audiences, that was the reason I unsuccessfully called it for “The Wild Robot;” however, I correctly predicted either two of the other films as the upset.
Something I did get right was “The Brutalist” winning Best Cinematography. It won the BAFTA, and the film has been praised for its stylish camera angles, so no surprise there.
Another no-surprise that I called is “Wicked” flying off with two Oscars: Best Costume Design and Best Production Design. Movie musicals with elaborate production values tend to triumph in these two categories. I must mention that I’m deeply happy that Christopher Nolan’s production designer, Nathan Crowley, finally won a long-overdue Academy Award.
“No Other Land” earned Best Documentary Feature Film. This category was extremely hard to predict as the BAFTA winner, “Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story,” was not Oscar-nominated and the category does not exist with any of the other awards shows. I selected “Black Box Diaries” as my main prediction due to its title being most familiar to me. However, I succeeded in putting down “No Other Land” as my upset. Had I done my research to discover that the Oscar winner is about the extremely timely Israeli-Palestinian conflict, I would have plugged in “No Other Land” as my primary prediction due to its political relevance.
The Academy didn’t overlook “I’m Still Here” as it scored Best International Feature Film. I took a risk with this one and it paid off as I called this one. The frontrunner was “Emilia Perez” which had won all the awards in this category, but because said frontrunner had built up an abundance of backlash for a variety of reasons, I didn’t see it crossing the finish line to collect its Oscar. Because both of these films were nominated for Best Picture and because “I’m Still Here” is significantly more acclaimed than “Emilia Perez,” my prophecy came true.
“The Substance” injected itself with the Academy Award for Best Makeup and Hairstyling. It has been the consistent frontrunner throughout the awards season, and I was thrilled that it struck gold for its nightmarish prosthetics. “The Substance” is my favorite film to come out in the last five years—let alone of the year—so, I’m pleased that Monstro ElisaSue didn’t stampede out of the Dolby Theater empty-handed.
The Best Original Score went to “The Brutalist.” This was an awfully tough one to predict as the frontrunner, “Challengers,” was snubbed by the Academy as a nomination. Because musicals tend to win in this category, I selected “Wicked,” but I wisely put down “The Brutalist” as my upset. Because “The Brutalist” did the BAFTA, looking back, I should have penciled it in as my main prediction.
The Best Original Song went to “El Mal” from “Emilia Perez.” This one was easy to foresee as the tune scored the Golden Globe and the Critics’ Choice Award.
“Dune: Part Two” slithered away with two Academy Awards: Best Visual Effects and Best Sound. Its 2021 predecessor scored in those two categories as well and this sequel won all previous awards for the two in question.
In closing, after having seen “Anora” post-Oscars, I agree with its wins for Best Picture and Best Actress. Although “The Substance” remains my favorite as it is 2024’s most thrilling movie, “Anora” is the most powerful. It’ll knock the wind out of you. You won’t know what hit you.
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